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Table 1. Estimated values of regional TFR (Total fertility rate).

Italy, 2000-2040. Hypothesis 2, constant fertility.

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Region              2000  2010  2020  2030  2040

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Piemonte           1.188 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Valle d'Aosta      1.188 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Lombardia          1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Veneto             1.220 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Trentino A.A.      1.345 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Friuli V.G.        1.108 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Liguria            1.107 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Emilia-Romagna     1.157 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Toscana            1.125 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Umbria             1.110 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Marche             1.220 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Lazio              1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Abruzzi            1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Molise             1.241 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Campania           1.453 1.303 1.250 1.250 1.250

Puglia             1.395 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

Basilicata         1.481 1.331 1.250 1.250 1.250

Calabria           1.459 1.309 1.250 1.250 1.250

Sicilia            1.619 1.469 1.319 1.250 1.250

Sardegna           1.366 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250

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Italy              1.329 1.293 1.250 1.250 1.250

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Table 2. Estimated values of regional TFR. Italy 2000-2040.

Hypothesis 4, growing fertility with acceleration

in 30 years.

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Region              2000  2010  2020  2030  2040

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Piemonte           1.193 1.719 1.858 1.871 1.871

Valle d’Aosta      1.193 1.719 1.858 1.871 1.871

Lombardia          1.264 1.805 1.948 1.962 1.962

Veneto             1.226 1.759 1.900 1.913 1.913

Trentino A.A.      1.476 2.049 2.201 2.215 2.215

Friuli V.G.        1.110 1.616 1.751 1.763 1.763

Liguria            1.109 1.615 1.749 1.761 1.761

Emilia-Romagna     1.161 1.679 1.817 1.830 1.830

Toscana            1.128 1.639 1.775 1.787 1.787

Umbria             1.113 1.620 1.754 1.767 1.767

Marche             1.226 1.759 1.900 1.913 1.913

Lazio              1.328 1.881 2.028 2.041 2.041

Abruzzi            1.294 1.841 1.986 1.999 1.999

Molise             1.247 1.784 1.927 1.940 1.940

Campania           1.585 2.168 2.323 2.337 2.337

Puglia             1.526 2.104 2.258 2.272 2.272

Basilicata         1.613 2.198 2.353 2.367 2.367

Calabria           1.591 2.174 2.329 2.343 2.343

Sicilia            1.752 2.340 2.496 2.510 2.510

Sardegna           1.497 2.073 2.225 2.239 2.239

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Italy              1.392 1.957 2.093 2.127 2.143

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Table 3. Estimated values of regional TFR. Italy, 2000-2040.

Hypothesis 5, growing fertilità with acceleration in

40 years.

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Region              2000  2010  2020  2030  2040

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Piemonte           1.146 1.388 1.553 1.593 1.600

Valle d'Aosta      1.146 1.388 1.553 1.593 1.600

Lombardia          1.212 1.419 1.560 1.594 1.600

Veneto             1.177 1.402 1.556 1.594 1.600

Trentino A.A.      1.413 1.512 1.580 1.597 1.600

Friuli V.G.        1.068 1.351 1.545 1.593 1.600

Liguria            1.067 1.351 1.545 1.593 1.600

Emilia-Romagna     1.116 1.374 1.550 1.593 1.600

Toscana            1.085 1.359 1.547 1.593 1.600

Umbria             1.071 1.353 1.545 1.593 1.600

Marche             1.177 1.402 1.556 1.594 1.600

Lazio              1.273 1.447 1.566 1.595 1.600

Abruzzi            1.241 1.432 1.563 1.595 1.600

Molise             1.197 1.411 1.558 1.594 1.600

Campania           1.517 1.561 1.591 1.599 1.600

Puglia             1.460 1.535 1.585 1.598 1.600

Basilicata         1.544 1.574 1.594 1.599 1.600

Calabria           1.522 1.564 1.592 1.599 1.600

Sicilia            1.676 1.636 1.608 1.601 1.600

Sardegna           1.433 1.522 1.583 1.598 1.600

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Italy              1.334 1.483 1.568 1.599 1.600

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